What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for Brisbane, with the two payment flows kept separate and the comparator limited to what is published.
- State A carries a A$125/t levy in 2025–26, legislated to A$165/t in 2029–30, before landfill operating cost. State B’s fee floor is A$142.05/t, escalating 2.5% a year; the levy passes it in 2028–29.
- State B at Phase Initial: A$20.74M a year in Beneficiation Fee against A$24.89M a year in Circular Royalty™ from Month 13 — two independent gross flows, reported separately.
- Zero Council capital at every phase, all regulatory work carried by Carbotura, and a destination that is neither landfill nor combustion.
Brisbane
Economic Impact Report
At the floor the fee is above today’s levy, and the levy passes it in 2028–29. The royalty is separate, and larger.
State A — the current system
Brisbane City Council operates its own engineered landfill at Rochedale, receiving around 250,000 tonnes a year. Landfill gas is captured and converted to electricity under contract: in 2024–25 the site generated about 59.7 GWh and the Council reports 477,770 t CO₂e abated.
Every landfilled tonne carries the Queensland levy. The published Level 1 schedule is:
| Financial year | Levy per tonne |
|---|---|
| 2024–25 | A$115 |
| 2025–26 | A$125 |
| 2026–27 | A$135 |
| 2027–28 | A$145 |
| 2028–29 | A$155 |
| 2029–30 | A$165 |
The levy is a floor on what landfilling a tonne costs, not the full cost: the Council’s own landfill operating cost per tonne is not published. The State has made payments to councils to offset the levy on household material; the current arrangement for Brisbane is not asserted here. This report takes no position on the landfill, its operation or the regional procurement.
State B — Advanced Circular Manufacturing under a CSA
What State B is not. Advanced Circular Manufacturing is not incineration, not energy from waste, not pyrolysis and not gasification. There is no combustion at any stage, no stack and no ash, and Carbotura does not sell power, electricity or hydrogen — energy is consumed internally, never a revenue line.
In State B the Council delivers its stream to an ACM plant and pays a Beneficiation Fee of A$142–213/t (US$100–150), modelled here at the A$142.05 floor and escalating 2.5% a year. Separately and independently, Carbotura pays the Council a Circular Royalty™ on the same delivered tonnage.
| Year | Beneficiation Fee (A$/t) | Annual Beneficiation Fee (A$M) | Royalty multiplier | Circular Royalty™ (A$/t) | Annual Circular Royalty™ (A$M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (pre-royalty) | $142.05 | $20.74 | — | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Year 1 (from Month 13) | $142.05 | $20.74 | 120% | $170.45 | $24.89 |
| Year 2 | $145.60 | $21.26 | 121% | $176.17 | $25.72 |
| Year 5 | $156.79 | $22.89 | 124% | $194.42 | $28.39 |
| Year 10 | $177.40 | $25.90 | 129% | $228.84 | $33.41 |
| Year 20 | $227.08 | $33.15 | 139% | $315.64 | $46.08 |
| Year 30 | $290.68 | $42.44 | 149% | $433.12 | $63.24 |
| 30-year gross | — | ~$910M | — | — | ~$1,241M |
Phase Initial, 146,000 tonnes a year, AUD. Accrual basis throughout: Year n carries Mₙ × BFₙ. The two columns are independent gross flows and are never netted. At Phase Medium (292,000 t/yr) every annual figure doubles. Figures ILLUSTRATIVE.
The fee against the levy
The comparison this report will stand behind is narrow: the Beneficiation Fee floor against the levy alone, on the published schedule. It does not favour us today, and we show it anyway.
| Financial year | Queensland levy (A$/t) | Beneficiation Fee floor (A$/t) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | $125 | $142.05 |
| 2026–27 | $135 | $145.60 |
| 2027–28 | $145 | $149.24 |
| 2028–29 | $155 | $152.97 |
| 2029–30 | $165 | $156.79 |
Illustrative only: the fee column assumes, for comparison, that the escalation year aligns with the levy year. At the floor the fee is above the levy alone for the first three years and below it from 2028–29, after which the gap widens by about A$6 a tonne a year. The levy column excludes landfill operating cost, so it understates State A. At the top of the fee range (A$213/t) the fee stays above the levy alone throughout this schedule, and this report does not claim otherwise. The Circular Royalty™ is a separate flow and is not set against either column.
Carbotura’s Phase Initial is a US$240M Standard Deployment — US$75M for the first module and US$55M for each of three more; Phase Medium is US$460M. That is Carbotura capital. The Council commits none at any phase, and carries no permitting cost or risk.
Employment
Phase Initial supports approximately 100 direct full-time roles and around 300 indirect, rising to roughly 200 direct and 600 indirect at Phase Medium. These are manufacturing roles — process operation, maintenance, quality, logistics.
Employment figures are ESTIMATED from Carbotura’s standard per-TPD scaling, not from a Brisbane economic study.
What could make this wrong
The full cost of State A is not published. We compare against the levy alone. If the State’s offset arrangements reduce what the Council actually bears on household tonnes, the levy comparison weakens accordingly. We have kept the comparison to the published schedule for that reason.
The fee is above the levy today. At the A$142 floor the fee exceeds the levy alone until 2028–29; at the A$213 top of the range it exceeds it throughout the published schedule. The case rests on the royalty, the rising levy and the absence of capital, not on a per-tonne saving.
The exchange rate moves. The AUD figures are converted from US-dollar programme ranges at the RBA rate of 30 October 2026 and will move until the fee is fixed at Term Sheet.
We have no operating plant. Carbotura is development-stage; no facility is at or past Commercial Operation Date. The CSA’s condition precedent exists so that risk does not sit with the Council, and the first facility will be operating before any decision here is required.
The regional process may shape what is possible. Brisbane is one of 11 councils in the Council of Mayors (SEQ) ACCC application. How a bilateral agreement fits beside it is for the Council to judge.
Levy treatment, composition and siting are open. How the levy applies to ACM-processed tonnes is to be confirmed with the Department; no characterisation study has been performed; no site has been identified.
Appendix A — Basis of presentation
All fee and royalty figures in Australian dollars, ILLUSTRATIVE until Term Sheet execution; Carbotura’s programme ranges are set in US dollars and converted at the RBA rate of 30 October 2026 (A$1 = US$0.7040). Capital figures are Carbotura’s, in US dollars. Circular Royalty™ computed under the Release 31 formula: the multiplier applies to the current-year escalated Beneficiation Fee. Accrual basis stated and kept; no table mixes bases. Accounting standard: Australian Accounting Standards (AASB).
State A comparator is the Queensland Level 1 levy on general material, ex GST, on the published schedule to 2029–30. It has not been adjusted and does not include landfill operating cost. No saving is claimed anywhere in this report.
The Beneficiation Fee and the Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions and appear only as separate gross lines.
Appendix B — Sources
- Brisbane City Council — Environment, Parks and Sustainability Committee, Overview of Waste and Resource Recovery Services, 19 August 2025
- Brisbane City Council — Brisbane Landfill fact sheet and facility pages
- Queensland Government — waste levy rates (Level 1, metropolitan)
- Council of Mayors (SEQ) — media release, 15 April 2026, and FAQ on collaborative action on landfill
- Queensland Government Statistician’s Office — LGA population estimates, 30 June 2025